13 March 2006

Civil War?

Mohammed over at Iraq The Model has a great piece about the violence in Baghdad and elsewhere in his home country.
Well it seems that the violence has a connection, not just to sectarian differences, but to the BIG STORY over there. No I don't mean a news show with Mohamad el-Gibson, THE TRIAL.

Looking at the time pattern of violence escalations we can notice that spikes in attacks curve coincide with the sessions of Saddam's trial which indicates that followers of Saddam are still strong and active inside Baghdad and it seems that those are isolating themselves from the developments in the Iraqi scene even with regard to their politician friends and public base so to speak as the latter had changed their methods and switched largely to political means of opposition.

Those Saddam followers are moving far away from the general course of events and are likely to remain a source of trouble for a long time to come but their determination I suspect will fade after Saddam is executed.

Boy, do I love those last four words.

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